Ukraine: Toward a West-Russia constructive dialogue?

Ukraine: Toward a West-Russia constructive dialogue?

-Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal

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The situation on the ground in Ukraine remains fragile as pro-Russia rebels and Ukrainian military exchange fires, killing many. Russia is not an ordinary country like Afghanistan or Pakistan to impose its super-power will. Instead of proactive diplomacy, USA resorted to cold rhetoric and sanctions against Russian economy, thereby vitiating the mutual trust deficit further.  Mild sanctions were slapped on a mighty Russia, hoping to make the Kremlin cave in and withdraw its forces from the boarders.    

The USA and Europe have already sanctioned Russian individuals and entities, including some with close ties to Putin, but have so far stayed away from the broader penalties, in part because of concern from European countries that have close economic ties with Russia. USA does not want to target the Russian oligarchs, local and national crony capitalists.

These mild sanctions have not made any significant impact on Russian economy.

Penalizing large swaths of the Russian economy, including its lucrative energy-arms industry as well as blocking Moscow’s access to world financial markets, would ratchet up the West’s punishments against Russia.

In Europe, the 28 nations that form the EU may at least agree on the details of a package of sanctions so the penalties could be levied quickly.  Given their reliance on Moscow for fuel supplies and far deeper economic integration with Russia, European countries are unlikely to go along with any far-reaching energy sector action.

The threat of sector sanctions may be driving Putin to try to avoid penalties that could have a devastating impact on the already shaky Russian economy. However, there were no guarantees that Moscow would abide by the West’s requests to pull back its troops from the Ukrainian border, stop arming separatists and negotiate seriously with Kiev.

Even as the USA and its European allies are finalizing a package of strong sanctions with the goal of putting them in place as early as  possible, the White House says there are positive signals from Russian President Vladimir Putin in the  threatening moves in Ukraine and so sanctions aimed at key economic sectors in Russia might be delayed . Also, the enthusiasm for new sanctions appears to have waned in recent days as countries evaluate whether Putin plans to follow through on a series of promises that could ease the crisis.

However, Putin wants the Ukrainian new president, Petro Poroshenko to come up with plans easing out the crisis.  One day after he talked by phone with Barack Obama, Putin urged the new Ukrainian government to extend a weeklong cease-fire and called for talks between Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels that are widely believed to be backed by the Kremlin.

US Vice-President Joe Biden spoke to Ukraine’s president Poroshenko to underscore the importance of having monitors in place in Ukraine to verify violations of the cease-fire, as well as the need to stop the supply of weapons and militants from flowing across the Russian border. USA keeps talking about not just sanctions but also additional sanctions on Russia. Obama and British PM David Cameron discussed Ukraine, including the possible implementation of “additional co-ordinated measures” to impose costs on Russia. 

Meanwhile, the Obama regime fears Russia would be able to escape punishment by shifting business from USA firms to European energy giants such as BP, Total or Royal Dutch Shell. WH officials said implementing restrictions on American companies exporting oil and gas exploration technology to Russia without similar rules for European competitors, risks harming major US players in Russia’s burgeoning energy sector such as ExxonMobil and Halliburton.

Even while focusing on the Russian economy and aiming  to hurt energy Washington  is keen  to do that without causing undue harm for US industry — a shared concern among White House officials, business lobbies and Republican-Democratic members of Congress whose trade concerns are well known as they are paid huge money by big businessmen as commissions.  Several US businesses are worried about the prospect of imminent sector sanctions on Russia.

The Russian leader, meanwhile, rescinded a parliamentary resolution authorizing him to use the Russian military in Ukraine as a step toward ending the conflict. The hint is Russia does not want to attack Ukraine. 

Although US bureaucrats have examined the possibility of unilateral action, they are still trying to do everything in concert with European countries. The USA and Europe have been eyeing a European Council meeting in Brussels later this week as an opportunity to announce the co-ordinated sanctions. 

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د. عبد راف 
Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal, Specialist on State Terrorism; Educationist; Chancellor-Founder of Centor for International Affairs(CIA); Independent Columnist-Analyst;Chronicler of Foreign occupations & Freedom movements(Palestine,Kashmir, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Xinjiang, Chechnya, etc);Former university Teacher;  abdulruff.wordpress.com/